Honorable delegates,

Welcome to the BALMUN 2009 Economic and Social Council!

The global economic crisis all of us do have to face in one way or another these days proves how important it is to find means of establishing sustainable economic strength in all countries. At the same time, most of the more economically developed countries (MEDCs) have to face further aging societies whereas the majority of all countries still grows in an unbelievable rate which does not exclude the fact that the elderly population increases everywhere. Therefore, the topic of this year "Ensuring the development of international concepts and agendas for economic strength and sustainability in times of demographic change" is a question of both today and this century.

In order to make researching easier, I split the topic into its different components, making each of them another point. Please, read this guide and all possible sources concerning the global and the national position of the country you are representing carefully. As most importantly, you need to understand what your country thinks about this matter.

The phrase “economic cycle” might be better than the German equivalent “Konjunktur” to describe the way economies work. In history, fluctuation always existed and until now, an economic downturn has always been followed by wealth and prosperity. Economists around the world do know that this crisis eventually will disappear as well, but when? How much damage will it leave and how much is it going to cost us?

Facing this crisis (or these crises) does not mean that we should forget about all the other issues we have to cope with like global warming, ever rising food prices, shortage of drinking water, humanitarian disasters or as well as our topic: the demographic change.

Now should be the time for us, and our politicians to kill not only two, but all birds with one stone.

Further reading:

• Website of the economic and social department of the UN (http://www.un.org/esa/)
• Press release: “Concerned that global crises threaten to worsen vulnerability in poorest nations” (http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/gaef3227.doc.htm)
• Wikipedia: “Global financial crisis of 2008-2009“ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_financial_crisis_of_2008%E2%80%932009)
• International Monetary Fund with data and information (http://www.imf.org/ and http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/index.aspx)
• The World Bank with data and information (http://www.worldbank.org/)

Demographic change is closely connected with economic development. This means that usually, as countries and its people get richer, they can afford health insurance and will benefit from the latest technological and medical achievements. While life expectancy increases, people tend to have fewer children, as children are no longer necessary for working or insurance purposes.

Further reading:

• Wikipedia: Demographic Transition (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition)
• Wikipedia: Population growth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth)
• "The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development" by M. Vervellati and U. Sunde (http://www.vwa.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/dp2008/DP-21-Ce.pdf) [very scientific, therefore only to some extent interesting]

The UN has predicted that the global population will reach a total of 9 billion people by 2050. This means that the world population will increase by one-third in the next 40 years. Thinking about poverty and the millennium goals, the problems we have to face seem obvious.  Unfortunately, these problems will only increase as the world’s population does.

Further reading:

• "World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision" by United Nations (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_text_tables.pdf)
• "Population Database" by United Nations (http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp)
• "The World at Six Billion" by United Nations (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbilpart1.pdf)
• "Revised UN estimates put world population at over 9 billion by 2050" by UN News Centre (http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=30159&Cr=family+planning&Cr1=)
• Complete information by Department of Economic and Social Affairs - Population Division (http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm)

The most imminent result of the demographic change is the further ageing of society, especially influencing the constitution of the workforce. Though, we must not forget the huge number of children, teens and young adults seeking education and employment.

All of this has an impact on social security systems, poverty among the youngest and eldest, hunger (more food is required which leads to higher prices) and rising energy costs (because demand increases).

For more information, please also read this research report on Developing strategies to relieve the burden on economically active citizens of provision of resources for an ageing population: <media 133>download here</media>.

Further reading:

• "U.N.: Young and Old Boom on the Road to 9 Billion" by Andrew C. Revkin (http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/un-young-old-boom-on-road-to-9-billion/?pagemode=print or http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/un-young-old-boom-on-road-to-9-billion/)
• "The Latest Population Bombs and Busts" by THE EDITORS (http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/12/the-latest-population-bombs-and-busts/?pagemode=print  or http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/12/the-latest-population-bombs-and-busts/?scp=1&sq=room%20for%20debate&st=cse)
• UN Millennium Development Goals (http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/)

How can we react to theses changes? Well, it is difficult to find international concepts and agendas that put into consideration the situations of all countries. Therefore there might not be a solution that suits all of us, but we have to find steps in order to achieve the best we can. This is your task now. What does your country do? What are national and international NGOs doing?

Further reading:

• Website of the UN Division for Sustainable Development (http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/index.shtml)
• Documents on globalization and interdependence (http://www.un.org/esa/coordination/globalization.htm#reports)
• Food First (especially http://www.foodfirst.org/en/viewtax/term/3 and http://www.foodfirst.org/en/viewtax/term/4)
• MIT AgeLab (just one example of a concept) (http://web.mit.edu/agelab/index.shtml)

To sum it up, I would like to ask you to focus both on how to cope with demographic change and on how to react to it. Let us try to make life worth living for all of us and future generations. I am looking forward to seeing you well-prepared and with a powerful resolution in June!

PS: New articles regarding our topic will be added to this list, so check out the list below from time to time! Please, also inform me about dead links.

ecosoc(at)balmun.de